Current Investment Outlook

The fear of a double dip is now upon us. European debt concerns, weak U.S. employment, and China's slowing growth prompted this. Deleveraging and derisking are the focus of investors. We believe the Global economy is working through a soft patch within a moderate recovery and fears of a recession seem overblown.

• We believe the Global stock markets are in a trading range much like 2004.
• Chinese growth has moderated. We expect a resumption of stimulus programs in the near future.
• European concerns center on sovereign debt and austerity measures. Slower growth is likely, and policy errors are a risk.
• U.S. concerns focus on weak employment and deficit spending. These worries may persist into the fall.
• Investors will want better clarity on employment growth, election outcomes, taxation policies, and Chinese growth to break out of the trading range.

Growth slows when moving from recovery to expansion. This time is no different.

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